Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 14.260978 16.287179 18.461168 20.962746 23.757175 26.777949 30.285727
2025-08-31 11.126706 13.856311 17.005970 20.890891 25.534357 30.885973 37.498796
2025-09-07 9.568013 12.596833 16.257431 20.973521 26.850816 33.893463 42.926393
2025-09-14 8.592571 11.887073 16.035216 21.586816 28.759675 37.645989 49.409461
2025-09-21 7.527261 10.891853 15.287528 21.373700 29.492121 39.847613 53.937280
2025-09-28 6.396865 9.670815 14.103874 20.445385 29.165165 40.598253 56.559218
2025-10-05 5.960795 9.351808 14.083637 21.039273 30.846770 44.000137 62.751937
2025-10-12 5.533549 8.993907 13.962381 21.455542 32.272127 47.086942 68.620818
2025-10-19 5.005607 8.429201 13.486871 21.310627 32.868372 49.026774 72.960419
2025-10-26 4.527836 7.891691 12.999828 21.096583 33.324094 50.755013 77.036597
2025-11-02 4.166674 7.501645 12.698387 21.124743 34.112271 52.961556 81.848463
2025-11-09 3.872533 7.191318 12.491280 21.271226 35.065387 55.423392 87.098616
2025-11-16 3.553857 6.817335 12.164166 21.220970 35.733973 57.524110 91.956484
2025-11-23 3.242800 6.427189 11.779954 21.049695 36.197030 59.327451 96.436378
2025-11-30 3.018866 6.167923 11.588460 21.168693 37.105839 61.820042 102.019179
2025-12-07 2.898466 6.085551 11.689124 21.773672 38.817055 65.607443 109.712588
2025-12-14 2.656744 5.752448 11.326744 21.563718 39.171819 67.268873 114.145716
2025-12-21 2.330527 5.224016 10.575243 20.626474 38.255114 66.854428 115.272107
2025-12-28 2.251615 5.176888 10.693330 21.225590 39.959377 70.715252 123.331999
2026-01-04 2.153589 5.081447 10.713198 21.644861 41.366384 74.132779 130.779705
2026-01-11 1.991926 4.838074 10.434685 21.498906 41.773713 75.904125 135.590325
2026-01-18 1.835961 4.591289 10.130482 21.283172 42.039582 77.437168 140.044101
2026-01-25 1.720076 4.420563 9.962554 21.311561 42.737918 79.716695 145.802488